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逆势拉升！猪肉概念早盘大涨 产能去化有望加速_我的网站

A |     　　8月25日早盘，两市震荡调整，猪肉概念逆势拉升，截至早间收盘，板块上涨1.71%，涨幅居概念板块前列。个股方面，金字火腿涨近6%，ST龙大涨超5%，西部牧业、大禹生物涨超4%，神农集团涨超3%，顺鑫农业、唐人神、温氏股份、克明食品、得利斯、新五丰、牧原股份、大北农等多股涨超2%。

B |     The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to U.S. officials.A senior U.S. official and a U.S. official told ABC News that the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group will be ordered to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group that arrived there earlier this week and is in international waters off of Israel."I have directed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to begin moving to the Eastern Mediterranean," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a statement confirming the deployment. "As part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas's attack on Israel."Senior U.S. officials have said publicly this week that the presence of the USS Ford carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and the addition of more U.S. Air Force fighter jets to the region was intended to show the U.S. commitment to Israel and to serve as a deterrent to Iran and Hezbollah not to get involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict."These posture increases were intended to serve as an unequivocal demonstration in deed and not only in words of U.S. support for Israel's defense and serve as a deterrent signal to Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and any other proxy across the region who might be considering exploiting the current situation to escalate conflict," a senior U.S. defense official said Monday. "Those adversaries should think twice."Having the Eisenhower joining the Ford will increase the show of force enhancing that message of deterrence.A third U.S. official told ABC News that the Pentagon is also considering the deployment of the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship closer to Israel to provide additional support if needed. The consideration of the ship and the rotary aircraft it carries while on deployment to the Middle East was first reported by CNN.The Eisenhower strike group left Norfolk, Virginia, earlier on Saturday bound for a previously scheduled deployment that would take it to the Middle East via the Mediterranean Sea where it was to participate in previously-scheduled exercises in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility.Its pending deployment led to speculation that it might be deployed to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Ford, but a Pentagon statement would only say that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would "continue to review both the Eisenhower and Ford's deployment plans as he considers the appropriate balance of maritime capability across theaters in support of national security priorities."The Eisenhower strike group includes the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower and the guided missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG-58), and the guided missile destroyers USS Laboon (DDG-58), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Gravely (DDG-107).The USS Ford strike group arrived in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday and in addition to the carrier includes the cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), as well as destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80).。　　短期供给压力有所缓解　　消息方面，生猪价格近期已有所反弹。据博亚和讯数据，8月中旬全国外三元生猪均价从10.30元/公斤最高冲到11.27元/公斤，走出一轮8连涨；最近23个交易日小幅回调，但仍维持在11.11元的近期高位。　　供应端是支撑当前猪价反弹的核心驱动力。前期能繁母猪存栏量持续去化的传导效应，正逐步在商品猪出栏端显现。截至2026年二季度末，全国能繁母猪存栏量已降至3780万头，距离3750万头的国家合理保有量目标仅一步之遥。　　与此同时，生猪出栏体重呈现结构性下降。受夏季高温天气影响，生猪的日增重速度放缓，增重成本显著高于春秋季节。行业已连续三个季度处于深度亏损状态，养殖端资金压力大幅增加，普遍放弃压栏增重，转而选择降重出栏以减少亏损。此外，政策端对二次育肥的严格管控使得大猪供应明显收缩、标肥价差收窄，有效缓解了短期供给压力。　　产能去化有望加速　　需求端方面，华龙期货指出，立秋后天气转凉，开学季备货和双节预期带动屠宰开工率低位回升，冻品库存周环比延续下滑。不过当前需求增量尚不足以驱动趋势性反转，短期猪价在标肥价差和压栏情绪支撑下仍具韧性，但8月下旬出栏压力释放和二育出栏窗口临近将限制上方空间。　　方正证券认为，从周期角度看，（生猪）产能去化有望进一步加速，拐点仍需等待。养殖端自繁自养亏损幅度明显扩大，行业现金流持续承压，能繁母猪产能去化稳步推进。股价角度，悲观预期已较充分，板块具备安全边际。养殖板块经历前期调整，当前估值处于历史低位。　　A股方面，自6月25日创下年内低点至今，申万生猪养殖板块已累计反弹超16%，11只成分股中10只上涨，仅京基智农1股下跌。上涨成分股中，神农集团涨幅最大，超28%；牧原股份次之，涨超22%；温氏股份、新五丰、东瑞股份、巨星农牧、天邦食品等6股均涨超10%。（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。

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